My Rankings: The Third Round

Judging by the latest ADP data, I have a good chance of getting Kemp, Rios, McCann or Martin in the third round. I don’t have a great chance of getting Pedroia or Morneau and there’s basically no chance I’ll get Ichiro or Prince Fielder, who are typically going in the third round. I wasn’t sure whether to rank the two catchers so high, but catchers who perform make your life easier, and catching talent doesn’t come out of nowhere. You’ll have to pay a price for Chris Iannetta or Matt Wieters, and there are no guarantees with them. 

So here are my rankings, 25-36 overall:

25. Matt Kemp, OF

26. Dustin Pedroia, 2B

27. Nick Markakis, OF

28. Alex Rios, OF

29. Carl Crawford, OF

30. Jason Bay, OF

31. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B

32. Justin Morneau, 1B

33. CC Sabathia, SP

34. Tim Lincecum, SP

35. Brian McCann, C

36. Russell Martin, C

My Rankings: The Second Round

Let me address the one inconsistency between an earlier post and this one right away. I wrote last month that I’d rather have Manny Ramirez than B.J. Upton, but now I’m ranking Upton higher than Manny. What changed? Not much, really. Manny’s still going to be a Dodger and Upton’s still going to be an elite outfielder. I’m leaning towards Upton now because of his potential on the basepaths (44 steals last year) and as a power hitter (remember all those postseason homers?).

Other than that this list is pretty straightforward, I think. I like Brian Roberts a lot, but we knew that already and I’m ranking Matt Holliday higher than I expected to because he’s still a phenomenal all-around player heading into his age 29 season.

Anyways, here are my rankings, 13-24:

13. Carlos Beltran, OF

14. Alfonso Soriano, OF

15. Mark Teixeira, 1B

16. Matt Holliday, OF

17. B.J. Upton, OF

18. Lance Berkman, 1B

19. Evan Longoria, 3B

20. Johan Santana, SP

21. Manny Ramirez, OF

22. Brian Roberts, 2B

23. Carlos Lee, OF

24. Josh Hamilton, OF

My Rankings: The First Round

My list of the 12 most valuable fantasy baseball players wouldn’t be of any use to me if it stayed constant. So I admit this list will change between now and draft day, as we get health updates. Currently, here’s my list:

1. Hanley Ramirez, SS

2. Albert Pujols, 1B

3. Alex Rodriguez, 3B

4. Jose Reyes, SS

5. David Wright, 3B

6. Grady Sizemore, OF

7. Chase Utley, 2B

8. Miguel Cabrera, 1B

9. Ryan Braun, OF

10. Ryan Howard, 1B

11. Jimmy Rollins, SS

12. Ian Kinsler, 2B

The first round is generally the simplest to map out, and I’d say the main difference between my list and others I’ve seen is that I have more confidence than most in Utley. What do you think?

Manny Ramirez vs. Carlos Beltran

Manny Ramirez and Carlos Beltran are disappearing within a slot of each other near the end of the second round of recent drafts over at MDC. Manny’s ADP is that high because most are assuming a return to the Dodgers. I have no problem making that assumption for now, so let’s compare the two outfielders.

Manny should hit more homers and his career average beats Beltran’s by more than 30 points. Beltran, 32, is five years younger and he should steal 20 bases. I have no way of knowing whether Manny can do at 37 what he did at 36, so I’ll play it safe if I’m choosing between the two of them and go with Beltran’s youth and balanced stats. In fact, I would consider taking Beltran in the 15-20 range this year.

Users vs. Non-Users

Alex Rodriguez is the player everyone’s talking about, but there are plenty of major league players who have used PEDs or are using them now. My respect for these players dwindles every time I hear something like this, but I don’t value them differently as fantasy players.

Brian Roberts is still a stud, Ryan Franklin is still a non-factor, and J.C. Romero‘s still useful only if Brad Lidge gets hurt.

This isn’t to say that I don’t lose respect for these players, but they can still contribute.

Alex Rodriguez: Now vs. A Week Ago

Fine, Alex Rodriguez took steroids. From a fantasy baseball perspective, I don’t really care whether the players on my teams used PEDs or do still, but what does the SI report mean for A-Rod’s performance next year? Where should we draft him?

Well anyone who was thinking of taking A-Rod before Pujols will probably re-think that, and it’s fair to place him in the middle of the first round now, after Reyes and Wright.

Here’s why:

• If he’s been using PEDs recently, he might shy away from them for fear of being implicated in more scandal. Since the drugs help his performance, it’s fair to say he’s less valuable if he stops using them.
• Dealing with this will be a stress on A-Rod. He’ll have less time to focus on baseball.
• I’ve never met A-Rod obviously, so I have no clue what he’s like, but others say he doesn’t react well to pressure and his post-season record substantiates this, at least to a small extent.

This doesn’t crush A-Rod’s fantasy value, but it hurts it enough to bump him down to the middle of the first round.

Brandon Webb vs. Jake Peavy

Brandon Webb and Jake Peavy are both so good that I don’t have to explain their appeal to you.

I’ll take Webb over Peavy, because he’s been more consistent and effective. In the last three years, Webb  hasn’t finished lower than 3rd in the (admittedly mistake-prone) Cy Young voting, in part because he’s pitched at least 225 innings each year.

Peavy’s ceiling may be higher, but Webb’s team is better and he’s a more reliable choice. That said, I doubt I’ll end up drafting either pitcher before the fifth round this year (so likely not at all).

Ricky Nolasco vs. John Maine

I prefer Ricky Nolasco to John Maine this year because Nolasco can be better. I realize he logged far more innings last year than in 2007 (191 more), and this could lead to arm trouble. Still, his low WHIP and high strikeout totals provide value.

Nolasco struck out 7.9/9IP with a WHIP of 1.10. Maine struck out 7.8/9IP, but his WHIP was 1.35. Nolasco’s control keeps his WHIP down, and ultimately keeps his ERA lower than Maine’s.

Ricky Nolasco

Nolasco’s critics say that he’s an injury risk, but at least he doesn’t appear to be at risk of underperforming. I prefer Nolasco to A.J. Burnett, Derek Lowe, and Maine, to name a few. If Nolasco gets injured, I’ll put him on the DL or drop him and pick up another arm. I like running with an empty rotation spot sometimes to try and unearth arms like Cliff Lee, Edinson Volquez and Ryan Dempster.

Albert Pujols vs. Alex Rodriguez

Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez deserve consideration for the number one overall pick, but since Hanley Ramirez has become more coveted than the two sluggers, you’ll only get to choose between A-Rod and Pujols if you’re picking second overall. Still, you’ll find yourself in this position once in every twelve drafts so it’s worth knowing which player’s worth more to you (especially if you plan on drafting more than once).

Pujols is in the prime of a career that he could finish as the greatest righthanded hitter to ever live (I’m not saying that to rile up Hank Aaron fans or Willie Mays fans; it’s just the way it is). A-Rod’s in the midst of a stretch that’s seen him average 42 homers since the days when Paul Molitor was leading the league in hits- a run that’s unlikely to end before he becomes baseball’s all-time home run king.

I’d rather have Pujols, because I think he’s a better hitter. A-Rod strikes out almost twice as often as he walks while Pujols walks almost twice as often as he strikes out. It’s not just discipline either: Pujols out-slugged A-Rod by 80 points last year. Believe me, I’d be happy to pick third too, but if I’m picking second and Hanley’s off the board, I’m taking Pujols.

Fantasy Football vs. Fantasy Baseball

It’s Super Bowl Sunday, the one day of the year that even the most intense fantasy baseball fans are happy to set aside their pre-draft rankings and watch football. So how can I justify blogging about fantasy baseball on a day when even the most devoted baseball fans are fixated on Larry Fitzgerald, Ben Roethlisberger and Bruce Springsteen?

How about a comparison? Football and baseball are undoubtedly the two most popular fantasy sports in North America, but which one’s better?

I really like fantasy football, don’t get me wrong. There are so many tough decisions: do I take anything but a running back in the first round? Is Matt Forte really going to break out? When do I draft Frank Gore? I love getting almost all my team’s results on one day and then figuring out what would have to happen in the Monday nighter for me to win my matchup.

I’m already looking forward to fantasy football in 2009, but I prefer fantasy baseball and it’s not really close.